2024 Pheasant and Crane Draw Odds Report
2024 Big Game Draw Odds Summary
2024 Big Game Draw Odds Complete Report
2024 Bear and Turkey Draw Odds Report
2022 Big-Game Draw Odds Summary
2022 Bear and Turkey Draw Odds Report
2022 Big-Game Draw Odds Complete Report
2022 Pheasant and Crane Draw Odds Report
2021 Bear and Turkey Draw Odds Report
2021 Pheasant and Crane Draw Odds Report
2021 Big-Game Draw Odds Summary
2021 Big-Game Draw Odds Complete Report
2020 Big-Game and Turkey Draw Odds Complete Report
2020 Big-Game and Turkey Draw Odds Summary
2020 Pheasant and Crane Draw Odds Report
2019 Big-Game and Turkey Draw Odds Summary
2019 Big-Game and Turkey Draw Odds Complete Report
Previous years Hunting Rules & Information booklets (for cross-referencing odds reports information).
The New Mexico drawing process is complex and drawing odds reports can be confusing. Knowing how to use the reports and how the drawing works, however, are the keys to submitting an application with a reasonable chance of success.
The Department of Game and Fish produces two drawing odds reports for the big game draws. The reports do not include area descriptions, so be sure you have the hunt codes from the appropriate Hunting Rules and Information booklet.
For a description of how New Mexico’s big game drawings work, see previous tab (above).
As you examine the odds reports, you’ll notice that licenses or permits aren’t always distributed exactly according to the quota. This is because of variations in the number of applicants, particularly the guided pool.
The Drawing Odds Summary Report contains statistics for all big game species offered through the public draw. This report contains the number of first, second and third choice applicants and total applicants in each drawing pool for each hunt, as well as the number of successful applicants in each drawing pool. Comparing the number of applicants in your drawing pool with the number drawn in your pool will give you a rough idea of your odds.
Be aware that these numbers can be slightly misleading because a first choice applicant very likely applied for other hunts as second or third choices. Because each application can only be drawn for one hunt, the actual number of applicants competing for a particular hunt could be lower than the number indicated because some applicants would have been successful for one of their choices, and therefore their other choices would no longer be included in the draw.
The complete report contains pre-draw and post-draw statistics for all big game draw hunts. This report is a Microsoft Excel file, so you can save it to your computer and customize it by deleting rows and/or columns of data that you don’t want. Pre-draw statistics include the total applicants for each hunt, as well as total first, second and third choice applicants, plus the total first, second and third-choice applicants for each drawing pool. Post-draw statistics include the total number of successful applicants by choice, plus the total number of successful applicants by choice for each drawing pool and the percentages drawn for each pool.
To determine your odds, first you’ll need to multiply the total number of licenses available for a particular hunt by the percentage allotted to your drawing pool (for residents-multiply by 0.84, non-residents multiply by 0.06 and guided residents and non-residents multiply by 0.10). This will tell you approximately how many licenses are available for your pool. Then you can compare the number drawn for your drawing pool with the number of licenses available for that pool in either the Drawing Odds Report or the complete report to get a rough idea of your odds.
If you want to get more detailed, you can use the complete report and compare the number drawn in your drawing pool for each choice with the number who applied for that choice. This will provide a more accurate picture of your odds for each particular choice.
It’s important to remember that success in the draw ultimately depends on your sequence number, so no matter how good the odds seem according to the report, it’s still possible to be unsuccessful. Luck still plays a big part in drawing success.
Because of the complexity of the drawing process and the number of variables involved, there is no foolproof way to determine the exact odds of drawing for any particular hunt, but the drawing odds reports can help you make more informed decisions about what hunts to apply for.
